As I sit down to analyze this year's NBA championship landscape, I can't help but draw parallels to the thrilling basketball action we're seeing internationally. Just yesterday, I was watching the FIBA Women's Asia Cup where GILAS Pilipinas Women narrowly survived Lebanon's comeback attempt with that 73-70 victory to secure third place in Group B. That kind of international competition always reminds me how unpredictable basketball can be at the highest levels, and it's precisely this unpredictability that makes NBA Finals predictions both challenging and fascinating.

Looking at the current NBA landscape, I've got to say this might be one of the most open championship races we've seen in recent years. The defending champions Denver Nuggets are sitting at +450 odds according to most sportsbooks, and frankly, I think that's about right. Nikola Jokić has proven he can carry a team through the grueling playoff schedule, but what worries me is their depth compared to last season. They lost some key rotational pieces, and in the Western Conference gauntlet, that could prove costly when facing teams like Phoenix or the Lakers in earlier rounds.

Now, let's talk about the Eastern Conference where I see Boston as the clear favorite at +380. Their offseason moves addressed their biggest weakness – bench scoring – and Kristaps Porziņģis gives them a different dimension that could be crucial in a potential Finals matchup. I've watched them dismantle opponents this season with an offensive efficiency rating of 118.7, which is just staggering. But here's my concern – and this goes back to that GILAS Pilipinas game I mentioned – sometimes having to survive close games like that 73-70 battle actually prepares teams better for pressure situations than cruising through easy victories. Boston has had stretches where they've looked unbeatable, but they've also had some head-scratching losses that make me wonder about their mental toughness come playoff time.

The Milwaukee Bucks at +500 present what I consider the most intriguing value bet. Damian Lillard's integration has been slower than expected, but when that partnership clicks – and I believe it will by playoff time – they'll have two of the most clutch performers in recent NBA history. I've always been a believer that playoff basketball comes down to who can execute in the final three minutes, and with Giannis and Dame, they've got two players who've repeatedly proven they can deliver under pressure.

Out West, I'm keeping my eye on Phoenix at +600. Their big three of Durant, Booker, and Beal has played fewer than 15 games together due to injuries, but when they're all on the court, their offensive rating jumps to 121.3. That's championship-level production. The question is whether they can maintain health through four playoff rounds, which history suggests is unlikely for older teams with significant injury histories.

What surprises me most in the current odds is Golden State sitting at +1800. I know they're older and the Draymond Green suspensions have been disruptive, but Stephen Curry is still putting up 28 points per game on 45% three-point shooting. In a seven-game series, I'd never count out a team with the greatest shooter of all time still performing at an elite level. Their championship experience gives them an edge that younger teams simply can't replicate.

The dark horse that's caught my attention recently is Oklahoma City at +2500. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, and their young core plays with a maturity beyond their years. I remember thinking similar things about the 2012 Thunder when they made their surprise Finals run. The difference is this OKC team actually has more depth and better shooting than that squad did.

When I factor in everything – current form, roster construction, coaching, and the intangible "clutch gene" – my money would be on Boston emerging from the East and Denver coming out of the West. A Celtics-Nuggets Finals would showcase the two most complete teams basketball has to offer right now. Boston's defensive versatility could potentially bother Jokić more than other teams have managed, while Denver's playoff experience might overwhelm Boston's sometimes shaky late-game execution.

The championship ultimately comes down to which team can maintain their identity through injuries, bad shooting nights, and the immense pressure of the playoff spotlight. That GILAS Pilipinas game demonstrated how thin the margin between victory and defeat can be at this level – a three-point difference decided their fate, and similar small moments will determine who lifts the Larry O'Brien trophy. Based on what I've seen this season and throughout my years covering the league, I'm predicting the Boston Celtics will win the 2024 NBA Championship in six games, though I wouldn't be surprised if Denver pushes them to seven. The Celtics have built a roster that addresses their previous shortcomings, and sometimes you need to lose before you can win – a lesson that applies whether we're talking about international competitions or the NBA's biggest stage.